Effects on Monsoon Predictions

There are different factors besides predictors which can affect monsoon considerably like Tropical cyclones- “LAILA”, “PHET” etc.

Cyclones suck all the energy out of the Ocean, leading to feeble/weak rainfall during the monsoon season, the cyclone storm affects the wind-flow and the reach in moisture, even the fissure pattern changes, thus causing a low rainfall during monsoon. So long the cyclone remains, monsoon won’t come.

This year cyclone “LAILA” occurred over Bay of Bengal which affected onset of southwest monsoon slightly. Southwest monsoon was set in over Andaman Sea on around 17^th May, 3 days before its normal date. Subsequently monsoon reached Kerala on 31^st May, just one day before its normal date. After the onset of monsoon over Kerala, another cyclonic storm (“PHET”) formed over the Arabian Sea and this delayed further advancement of the monsoon across west coast by about one week.

What’s in the Name?

The method of naming cyclone was started by Australian meteorologist Clement Wragge. Before that the cyclones were named alphabetically like 1A, 1B etc. Practice of naming storms (tropical cyclones) was adopted years ago to help identify them so that people could be informed about their arrival quickly. The procedure of naming the cyclones has been laid down by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).

The eight North Indian Ocean countries India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Myanmar, Oman and Thailand have prepared a list of 64 names for the cyclones. The last eight were: Nargis (Pakistan), Rashmi (Sri Lanka), Khai-Muk (Thailand), Nisha (Bangladesh), Bijli (India), Aila (Maldives), Phyan (Myanmar) and Ward (Oman). After a cyclone has passed its name is retired and new names are suggested. The cyclone that followed Laila was called BanduThe name, Bandu, was given by Sri Lanka.

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