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| Climate Change & Maharashtra |
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Maharashtra is the third largest and the second most populous state in the country. It accounts for 9.4% of the total geographical area and occupies a substantial portion of the Deccan Plateau in the western peninsular of the subcontinent. The Western Ghats, which run parallel to the coast at an average elevation of 1200 metres form one of the three watersheds of the country, from which originate several important rivers, the most notable being Godavari and Krishna. To the north of the state, the rivers Tapi and Narmada flow westwards into the Arabian Sea. Administratively, the state is divided into 35 districts, Based on socio-political and other geographical considerations, the state is divided into five main regions: Vidarbha (north-eastern region), Marathwada, Khandesh, Northern Maharashtra (Desh) and Western Maharashtra (Konkan). Covering the entire Western Ghats, the Konkan region is known to receive the maximum rainfall in the state.
Maharashtra experiences extreme climatic conditions and the impacts of climate change will further exacerbate its current vulnerability. Maharashtra has its economy inextricably tied to climate-sensitive sectors, primarily agriculture, which is the backbone of the economy. Altered rainfall and precipitation patterns could affect hydrological systems and agricultural production and productivity. This is likely to endanger livelihoods of communities dependent on it and food security of the state. Interlinkages between different sectors would have a ripple effect on the entire economy. The impacts will be most felt on the vulnerable and poor sections of the society. The state of Maharashtra therefore underlying Climate change vulnerabilities associated with the prevalence of drought in the central belt and sea level rise, wide variations in development within the state. Climate change impacts in the state are summarized as
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Impacts on Human Health
It has been observed that currently 2% of the total reported malarial cases in India are from Maharashtra. Considering a 3.8°C increase in temperature and a 7% increase in relative humidity by the 2050s the changing climatic conditions could increase the frequency and intensity of the disease.
Malnutrition, under nourishment; injuries and deaths caused by extreme hydro-geological events; and thermal stresses cause due to an increase in the frequency and intensity of heat and cold waves.
The economic implications of health impacts of climate change are very high. The cumulative costs of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to diseases like malaria, diarrhoea and leptospirosis over the period 2005–2050 is projected to be around 3153 crore rupees for Mumbai city alone.
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Impacts on Agriculture
The state of Maharashtra faces many pressures that directly impact the agriculture sector like; high population growth rate, increased use of fertilizers due to increased production demand, increased pressure on canals, wells and tube wells for irrigation etc. Skewed distribution of rainfall in the state, pose drought as a recurrent phenomenon in certain regions. More than 30% of the state falls under the rainshadow area where scanty and erratic rains occur and about 84% of the total area under agriculture in the state is directly dependent on the monsoon rainfall. While annual rainfall in the coast is found to vary between 1600-4800 mm, in the interiors/central belt, it is less than 600 mm. This comprises the drought-prone regions of the state.
Of the 100 talukas in the state, 45 have been identified as being drought prone, according to the Central Water Commission statistics (CWC, 2005). Due to regular drought frequency, low levels of irrigation coverage, literacy, and infrastructure development and poor coping & adaptive capacity, this region is highly vulnerable; to impacts of climate change. Uneven distribution of rainfall in the state & high rainfall variability has contributed to huge economic losses in the state.
The frequency of droughts is projected to increase in future through changes in the hydrological cycle viz. precipitation, evapo-transpiration (ET), soil moisture etc. ET being the major component of hydrological cycle will affect crop water requirement, future planning & management of water resources.
A study on sensitivity of ET to global warming for arid regions, has projected an increase of 14.8% in total ET demand with increase in temperature. It is also concluded that marginal increase in ET demand due to global warming would have a larger impact on the resource-poor, fragile arid zone ecosystem that constitutes a bulk of Maharashtra.
Rice and sugarcane, two of the principle crops of the state are highly climate sensitive. Changes in water availability along with increase in temperature could have profound effect on the productivity of these two crops. A World Bank Study (2008) estimated that the productivity of sugarcane could go down by 30%.
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Impacts on Water Resources
According to preliminary assessment as part of India’s first national communication to UNFCCC and a study on hydrological modeling of the river basins, it can be inferred that River Tapi is likely to experience constant water scarcities. It also adds that Narmada and Krishna are likely to experience seasonal or regular water stressed conditions and Godavari is projected to experience water shortages in few locations. While rivers Tapi and Narmada irrigate most of North Maharashtra, Krishna and Godavari irrigate most of the central and eastern Maharashtra.
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Impacts on Coastal Zones
Maharashtra, with a long coastline of 720km furthermore faces a grave risk from sea level rise, which could flood land and cause damage to coastal infrastructure and other property.
With a one-meter sea level rise, over 13 lakh people are at risk in the state. Mumbai in particular is highly vulnerable to sea level rise.
One estimate put the cost of climate change related damages for Mumbai, India’s largest city at 2,28,700 crore rupees if no adaptation actions are taken to reduce vulnerability.
Sea level rise, salinity intrusion and, changes in sea surface temperature and pH have significant impacts on the coastal ecosystems like the corals along the Malwan coast of Maharashtra.
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Impacts on Species & Natural Areas
Increased susceptibility of species/varieties adapted to cooler climates.
Increase in frequency of rainfall & increased evaporation rate due to high temperature will adversely affect grasses, plant species & natural habitats.
Their will be high risk for hybrid varieties of domestic animals. Scarcity of fodder & green manure will cause threat to these animals.
Due to climatic change many species of flora & fauna will go towards extinction which will cause loss of biodiversity. New weeds & diseases will be introduced.
Uncontrolled grazing & forest fire will destroy important plant species & other nutritious grass species. Non-nutritious grass verities will become dominant.
Due to depletion of soil organic matter, microbiota and micronutrients, there will be degradation of soil quality in forest & grasslands. Excessive use of chemicals and loss of crop and livestock will cause decline in genetic diversity.
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